A biophysical framework for accurately identifying antigen single-amino acid escape variants and corresponding variant-specific compensatory TCR sequences

The impact of single amino acid substitution on T-cell receptor (TCR) recognition is central to understanding the molecular determinants of TCR specificity and degeneracy during viral mutational escape, cancer recognition, and autoimmunity. In this study, we developed a biophysics-informed computational approach integrating experimental alanine-scan mutagenesis data from the autoimmune-associated ALWGPDPAAA peptide bound to HLA-A*02:01 together with coarse-grained structural modeling. Our approach reconstructs the energetics and structural determinants underpinning the observed loss of recognition by the diabetogenic 1E6 TCR upon single-point mutations, specifically at the critical Pro⁵ and Asp⁶ residues. Leveraging the computational model's ability to incorporate multiple structural templates into binding predictions, this approach quantitatively reproduces experimentally measured affinity disruptions. Additionally, we apply our approach to identify potential compensatory interactions capable of restoring binding affinity through alternative residue interactions. This integrative computational framework contributes a strategy for inferring TCR-peptide binding energetics at the single amino acid level, guiding the rational design of peptide-based immunotherapeutics, and predicting the functional impacts of clinically relevant peptide variants.