Iran’s Bottleneck Diplomacy with Saudi Arabia and Israel

Abstract The October 2023 Hamas attack on Israel entailed a disproportional military counterattack by Israel on Gaza, and on Iranian strongholds in the Middle East. Iran’s evident failure to fully protect its allies and military assets pointed to a receding regional influence. The US-Israel Twelve-Day War against Iran’s military, industrial, nuclear, and civilian targets in June 2025 exposed the scale of Iranian defense vulnerability. On the diplomatic front, Iran failed to work with Saudi Arabia to prevent bloodshed in Gaza or the Twelve-Day War, despite joint appeals to reduce violence and condemn the Israeli aggression. Saudi Arabia encouraged a ceasefire in Gaza, but it discouraged Tehran and its ally Hamas from regrouping against Israel. 1 The Saudi response to the Twelve-Day War arrived belatedly, after other Muslim countries first condemned the attacks. Both conflicts revealed Iran’s frequent resort to niche diplomacy: seeking limited diplomatic goals without garnering momentum to resolve conflicts. 2 Its triangular diplomacy to mobilize resources with Saudi Arabia to preempt Israeli aggression only served to sustain Tel Aviv’s hostility and cautious ties with Riyadh. 3