Cost competitiveness and carbon reduction of battery-electric vehicle and battery-swapping electric vehicle with incentive policy in China

The key factors determining the total cost of ownership (TCO) of battery-electric vehicle (BEV) and battery-swapping electric vehicle (BSEV) are analysed. The effects of multiple incentive policies and carbon emission regulation on the cost competitiveness and carbon emission reduction of BEV and BSEV are explored in China. The comprehensive TCO model for BEV and BSEV is proposed focusing on vehicle category, city, incentive policy, and application. The TCO of BSEV’ M-SUV is approximately 20,000 yuan higher than that of internal combustion engine vehicle ICEV across five cities under the private car mode. The TCO of BSEV for all vehicle categories is the lowest, being approximately 100,000 yuan lower than that of BEV and around 250,000 yuan lower than that of ICEV under the ride-hailing mode. The incentive policies are essential to improve the cost competitiveness of BEV and BSEV under the private car mode. By contrast, TCO of BEV and BSEV is still 50,000 to 300,000 yuan lower than that of ICEV even without the implementation of incentive policies under the ride-hailing mode in 10 cities. Through sensitivity analysis, the rising unit carbon price, extended driving mileage and proportion of electricity generated from renewable energy sources have increasingly highlighted the advantage of BSEV in reducing carbon emission cost. The appropriate discount rates and optimized battery replacement period can effectively reduce the TCO of BEV and BSEV. Using the BEV with battery capacity of 75 kWh under the private car mode and the BSEV with battery capacity of 100 kWh under the ride-hailing mode are more conducive to TCO reduction. The methodology proposed in this paper can be used in other city and country studies, and generate useful information for supporting decision-making. • TCO model is constructed. • Carbon emission cost is analyzed. • Influencing factors are researched. • Effect of policy is discovered.