ASEAN and International Order Transition

This paper examines ASEAN's role in the ongoing transition of regional order amid intensifying U.S.-China rivalry. It argues that both major powers are seeking to court ASEAN as part of their broader contest for leadership in the Indo-Pacific, recognizing that regional followership is essential to sustaining their strategic influence. Drawing on the three-pillar framework of international order, the paper contends that ASEAN's limited military capacity constrains its influence in the power-based pillar. However, ASEAN can still exert meaningful agency through institutional balancing, particularly within the institutional and normative pillars of the regional order. Specifically, ASEAN needs to pursue a strategy of selective engagement, i.e., promoting inclusive institutions, avoiding exclusive ones, and acting as a bridge-builder between competing powers, even as this task becomes increasingly challenging. The paper concludes that ASEAN's greatest test lies in maintaining its internal cohesion and unity. While the United States and China will remain the primary architects of the regional order transition, ASEAN's role as a stabilizing and mediating force should neither be overlooked nor underestimated.