Institutions, Identification, and AI as a Critical Juncture: Argument-Mapping Acemoglu's Nobel Lecture

This preprint reconstructs Daron Acemoglu’s Nobel lecture as an explicit, claim-level argument map, separating core theses, mechanisms, and identification assumptions into three linked DAG-style graphics (argument map, IV identification, and UTF/AI critical-juncture mechanism map). It adds a falsification-oriented checklist so each load-bearing claim is stated in a way that can be inspected, stress-tested, and updated as evidence accumulates.