Study on prediction and regulation of water resources carrying capacity under changing environment

Climate change and human activities are intensifying the water cycle processes, exerting a certain degree of impact on the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of water resources, thereby increasing the uncertainty in water resource development and utilization. This has led to situations where in some regions, the degree of water resources development and utilization has approached or even exceeded the carrying capacity of water resources, creating a mismatch between the spatial layout of water resource carrying capacity and the economic and social structure. This study focuses on the Yishusi River Basin, constructing a system dynamics coupled orthogonal experimental optimization method for predicting and regulating water resources carrying capacity. By setting various scenarios combining climate change and human activities, and applying the constructed model for predicting and regulating water resources carrying capacity under climate change, the study conducted analysis on predicting and regulating water resources carrying capacity during different future development periods in the region. The results include predictions of water resources carrying capacity and regulatory measures for this basin. The results indicate that: (1) Under different scenarios, the natural runoff in the Yishusi River Basin is expected to increase in the future. (2) By 2030, 2035, and 2050, under current water supply conditions, the water quantity and quality in the Yishusi River Basin will be all in a state of overload for each climate scenario.(3) By selecting regulatory indicators and formulating control measures, the predicted results for different scenarios in the Yishusi River basin were regulated. After regulation, all scenarios are in a critically overloaded state.