Decadal Runoff Variability Under Moderate and Extreme Climate Scenarios: A SWAT Modeling Study for a Postglacial Lowland Catchment (NW Poland)

The study investigates the projected impact of climate change on water runoff in the upper Parsęta catchment, a postglacial lowland basin located in northwestern Poland. In the first step of the analysis, hydrological simulations for the period 2005–2022 were conducted using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Model calibration and validation, performed in SWAT-CUP with the SUFI2 algorithm, yielded satisfactory performance (R2 = 0.66–0.80; PBIAS = 0.43–13.87). Based on the calibrated model, projected simulations were performed for three future decades (2021–2030, 2031–2040, and 2041–2050) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Climate input data were derived from the KLIMADA 2.0 national database, which was developed using down-scaled regional climate model output from the EURO-CORDEX ensemble and statistical bias-correction methods to generate high-resolution projections. Under RCP4.5, mean annual runoff increased by approximately 13–26%, while under RCP8.5, the changes were more variable, ranging from 2% to 28% relative to the 2011–2020 baseline. Seasonal analyses revealed enhanced autumn–winter runoff and lower spring–summer flows. The findings highlight that moderate climate forcing can lead to substantial alterations in hydrological regimes in postglacial lowland catchments, in certain decades comparable in magnitude to those projected under extreme forcing, underscoring the need for adaptive water management in northern Poland.