Determinants of Life Expectancy in Developing Countries: A Comparative Analysis 2012–2022

Introduction: Life expectancy is a key indicator of population health and development.Understanding its determinants is crucial for effective health policy, especially in developing countries where resources are limited.Objective: This study aimed to identify and compare the socio-economic and demographic determinants of life expectancy in 2012 and 2022 across 110 developing countries, assessing how their influence and the explanatory power of a standard model changed over the decade.Methodology: A comparative cross-sectional analysis was conducted using national data from the World Bank's World Development Indicators (WDI).Multiple linear regression models were used to analyze the relationship between life expectancy and four independent variables: Gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, access to basic sanitation, total fertility rate, and urban population percentage.Results and conclusion: Access to basic sanitation and a lower fertility rate were strong, significant predictors of higher life expectancy in both periods, with the influence of fertility strengthening over time.Gross domestic product per capita and urbanization were not significant direct predictors.A critical finding was a marked decline in the model's explanatory power, with R falling from 0.737 in 2012 to 0.629 in 2022.This indicates that while investments in sanitation and fertility reduction remain fundamental, factors beyond traditional socio-economic models, such as health system resilience and governance, have become increasingly important.Policymakers must therefore bolster foundational health investments while building systems capable of addressing complex modern challenges like pandemics and non-communicable diseases (NCDs).