Asylum seekers and the rise in homelessness

Data from the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) show an unprecedented 43 percent increase in the number of people residing in homeless shelters in the United States between 2022 and 2024, reversing the gradual decline of the preceding sixteen years. Three-quarters of this rise occurred in four localities – New York City, Chicago, Massachusetts, and Denver – where large inflows of new immigrants, many lawfully paroled into the U.S. while seeking asylum, were housed in the homeless shelter system. Using direct estimates from local government sources and indirect methods based on demographic changes, we estimate that new migrant inflows were the primary driver of this dramatic rise, explaining about 59–62 percent of the two-year increase in sheltered homelessness. These estimates challenge narratives that attribute the increase primarily to local economic and housing market conditions and underscore the need to carefully consider population shifts, shelter capacity, and measurement practices when interpreting changes in official homeless counts over time.