Multi-Scale Drivers of Urban Vegetation Moisture Stress: A Comparative OLS and GWR Analysis in Makassar City, Indonesia

Rapid urban expansion in tropical coastal cities has intensified vegetation moisture stress, compromising urban resilience and ecological stability. This study investigates the spatial drivers of the Moisture Stress Index (MSI) in Makassar City, Indonesia, by integrating biophysical indicators and land-use characteristics through multi-scale regression analyses. Utilizing dry-season satellite composites (May–August 2025), the research derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Land Surface Temperature (LST), and Normalized Difference Built-up Index (NDBI). MSI was modeled using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) across 240 m, 480 m, and 960 m grids. Results indicate that MSI is highly sensitive to urban morphology and land-use configuration. High moisture stress was concentrated in commercial–industrial and dense residential zones characterized by extreme population densities exceeding 28,000 people/km2 and elevated NDBI. In contrast, agricultural zones and open/green spaces provided significant cooling and moisture retention. Comparative performance analysis reveals that the local GWR model significantly outperformed the global OLS model, achieving a substantial reduction in AICc (−10,475.81) and resolving significant spatial autocorrelation to achieve random residuals (z-score = 1.55). The study further confirms that NDBI is the most robust biophysical predictor of MSI. Spatial heterogeneity analysis demonstrated that land-use influences are geographically contingent, with institutional areas showing varied effects based on campus design and canopy presence. These findings emphasize the necessity of scale-aware, climate-adaptive urban planning and demonstrate that GWR provides a high-fidelity tool for identifying neighborhood-level “micro-hotspots” overlooked by global modeling frameworks.