Evolving Attitudes to Ukrainian and Russian Minorities in Czechia During the Russian Invasion of Ukraine: Democrats Stay the Course

This panel study examines changes in attitudes towards Ukrainian and Russian minorities in the Czech Republic and their links to disinformation beliefs and democratic commitment. The data were obtained from 490 respondents in a Czech quota sample (age 18-69; M = 46.09, SD = 13.40; 45.7% women). Between 2022 and 2025, mean favorability towards both groups declined: evaluations of Ukrainians shifted from slightly positive to slightly negative, while evaluations of Russians dropped from slightly to markedly negative. A repeated measures ANOVA showed that these changes were moderated by respondents' belief in disinformation and democratic orientation. Respondents resilient to disinformation and committed to democracy ('Rational Pro-Ukrainians') maintained positive attitudes towards Ukrainians and showed only a medium further decline in already negative attitudes towards Russians. In contrast, respondents vulnerable to disinformation and less democratically oriented ('Generally Disinformed' and 'Pro-Russians') displayed a sharp decline in attitudes towards Ukrainians-to strongly negative, polarising levels-while their views of Russians deteriorated only slightly. The results suggest that pro-democratic individuals remained guided by empathy, humanism and in-group solidarity (Social Identity Theory), whereas disinformed non-democrats adopted out-group, threat-based perceptions (Realistic Threat Theory). Overall, rationality and democratic commitment appear to buffer against disinformation and polarisation, sustaining solidarity with democratic allies.