Hybrid machine learning framework for transverse cracking prediction in CRCP with PSO and GBM

Abstract Transverse cracking is a major distress mechanism in Continuously Reinforced Concrete Pavement (CRCP), affecting ride smoothness, service life, and maintenance strategies. This research introduces a hybrid predictive framework that couples Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) with Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM) to enhance the accuracy of transverse crack prediction in CRCP. The analysis utilized 395 records from 33 pavement sections obtained from the Long-Term Pavement Performance (LTPP) program, encompassing structural, environmental, traffic, and performance-related parameters. PSO was applied to fine-tune critical GBM hyperparameters, namely the number of iterations, learning rate, and tree depth. The optimized PSO–GBM model demonstrated excellent performance, yielding an average RMSE of 1.62 and an R 2 of 0.99 under 5-fold cross-validation, surpassing benchmark models such as conventional GBM, Random Forest, Support Vector Regression (SVR), Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), and Linear Regression. Sensitivity analysis revealed that L3 thickness, L4 thickness, and Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) were the most significant contributors, consistent with engineering knowledge of crack development. Validation through residual distribution and equality line plots confirmed the robustness and stability of the proposed approach across varying severity levels.