Policy orientations reshape landscape connectivity in mountainous regions: Simulation and spatial optimization in Funiu Mountain area in Central China

Landscape connectivity is a key indicator of ecological integrity and stability at the large scale, yet it is highly vulnerable to land-use changes driven by policy decisions. Over recent decades, rapid urbanization and land-use intensification have led to a widespread decline in connectivity, especially in central and eastern regions in China. Consequently, it is urgent to investigate how different policy orientations will affect landscape connectivity in the future. This study analyzed land-use data from the Funiu Mountain area (2005–2020) in Central China and employed the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation model to simulate land-use patterns in 2035 under four policy-oriented scenarios. Morphological Spatial Pattern Analysis and Conefor were used to evaluate the landscape connectivity of ecological core areas, and the policy scenario with the greatest improvement was applied to guide the spatial configuration of future forest and cropland. The results showed that elevation was the dominant driver of land-use change, and substantial land-use shifts occurred across all scenarios, with the ecological-priority scenario increasing connectivity indices by 30–40%, while the other three scenarios changed within –10% to 10%. This study provides theoretical support for policy delineation by prioritizing contiguous forest expansion along key ecological corridors, clustering new cropland near existing patches, and siting construction away from least cost paths and pinch points, which improves connectivity as indicated by higher PC, IIC, and LCP and reduces fragmentation risk. Multiple policy scenarios of landscape connectivity simulation can help optimize production, living, and ecological spaces and guide sustainable land use planning in mountainous regions.