QBOi El Niño Southern Oscillation experiments: assessing relationships between ENSO, MJO, and QBO

Abstract. This study uses an ensemble of climate model experiments coordinated by the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation initiative (QBOi) to analyze the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) in the presence of either perpetual El Niño or La Niña sea surface temperatures during boreal winter. In addition to the prescribed El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions, the nine models internally generate QBOs, meaning each may influence the MJO. Objectives of our analyses are to assess the response of the MJO to strong idealized ENSO forcing and look for evidence of a QBO influence on the MJO in a multi-model context. The diagnostics used include wavenumber-frequency spectra of tropical convective and dynamical fields, measures of MJO lifetime, an evaluation of MJO diversity and visualization of MJO vertical structure, as well as an assessment of QBO morphology and the QBO's impact on tropical convection. Kelvin wave spectral power increases in the El Niño simulations whereas equatorial Rossby waves power is stronger in the La Niña simulations. All models simulate faster MJO propagation under El Niño conditions. This change in speed is corroborated by the MJO diversity analysis, which reveals that models better reproduce the observed “fast propagating” and “standing” MJO archetypes given perpetual El Niño and La Niña, respectively. Regardless of ENSO, QBO descent into the lower stratosphere is underestimated and we detect little QBO influence on tropical tropopause stability and MJO activity. With little influence from the QBO on the MJO activity in these runs, we can be confident that the aforementioned changes in the MJO indeed arise from the different ENSO boundary conditions.

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Publication Details

Journal
Weather and Climate Dynamics
Published
2026-02-04
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-317-2026
Primary Topic
Atmospheric Ozone and Climate
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00

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article

QBOi El Niño Southern Oscillation experiments: assessing relationships between ENSO, MJO, and QBO

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Weather and Climate Dynamics
Atmospheric Ozone and Climate
article

QBOi El Niño Southern Oscillation experiments: assessing relationships between ENSO, MJO, and QBO

Federico Lorenzo Serva, Scott Osprey, Yoshio Kawatani, C. -C. Chen, Hiroaki Naoe, Javier García‐Serrano, Jadwiga H. Richter, François Lott, Dillon Elsbury, Clara Orbe, Masakazu Taguchi, Anne A. Glanville, Julie M. Caron, Froila M. Palmeiro, Stefan Versick, James Anstey, Shingo Watanabe, Kohei Yoshida, Tobias Kerzenmacher, Seung-Yoon Back, Neal Butchart, Seok-Woo Son
article en

Abstract

Abstract. This study uses an ensemble of climate model experiments coordinated by the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation initiative (QBOi) to analyze the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) in the presence of either perpetual El Niño or La Niña sea surface temperatures during boreal winter. In addition to the prescribed El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions, the nine models internally generate QBOs, meaning each may influence the MJO. Objectives of our analyses are to assess the response of the MJO to strong idealized ENSO forcing and look for evidence of a QBO influence on the MJO in a multi-model context. The diagnostics used include wavenumber-frequency spectra of tropical convective and dynamical fields, measures of MJO lifetime, an evaluation of MJO diversity and visualization of MJO vertical structure, as well as an assessment of QBO morphology and the QBO's impact on tropical convection. Kelvin wave spectral power increases in the El Niño simulations whereas equatorial Rossby waves power is stronger in the La Niña simulations. All models simulate faster MJO propagation under El Niño conditions. This change in speed is corroborated by the MJO diversity analysis, which reveals that models better reproduce the observed “fast propagating” and “standing” MJO archetypes given perpetual El Niño and La Niña, respectively. Regardless of ENSO, QBO descent into the lower stratosphere is underestimated and we detect little QBO influence on tropical tropopause stability and MJO activity. With little influence from the QBO on the MJO activity in these runs, we can be confident that the aforementioned changes in the MJO indeed arise from the different ENSO boundary conditions.

Weather and Climate DynamicsVol. 7(1)
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (DE), NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research (US), Goddard Institute for Space Studies (US), Met Office (GB), U.S. National Science Foundation (US), Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JP), Seoul National University (KR), Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (US), Tohoku University (JP), Hokkaido University (JP), Barcelona Supercomputing Center (ES), Aichi University of Education (JP), University of Oxford (GB), Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (FR), CMCC Foundation - Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (IT), National Centre for Atmospheric Science (GB), Istituto di Scienze Marine del Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (IT), NOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory (US), National Research Council (IT), Meteorological Research Institute (JP), Universitat de Barcelona (ES), Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (ES)
National Science Foundation, U.S. Department of Energy, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency, Met Office, Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Ministry of Environment, Ministry of Education, India, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Goddard Space Flight Center, Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Korea Environmental Industry and Technology Institute, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Climate action, Life below water
Openalex Percentile: Top 75%
Atmospheric Ozone and Climate
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