Flood Damage Assessment and Risk Scenario Analysis Based on the Upstream Supply Chain: A Case of Study 2016 Taihu Lake Basin Flood

ABSTRACT In the context of global climate change, regional flood disasters are becoming increasingly frequent, posing unprecedented challenges and threats to socioeconomic systems and fragile ecological environments. Given the highly interconnected nature of modern economic systems, the initial localized production shortages caused by floods can ripple through upstream supply chain networks and severely impact the wider region and national economy. Therefore, it is particularly urgent and important to assess in depth the economic losses of the upstream supply chain triggered by flood disasters and implement effective risk management strategies. To this end, we adopted a high‐precision multiregional input–output analysis framework to systematically analyze the chain reactions and economic losses of severe floods in the Taihu Lake Basin in 2016. This study not only quantifies the direct and indirect economic losses caused by floods but also explores the trajectories and strategies for postdisaster production recovery.