Analysis of the evolution of lottery policy in China from the perspective of policy cycle theory

Introduction As a critical component of public policies, lottery policies can be systematically analyzed through the theoretical framework of Policy Cycle Theory. By mapping China’s lottery policies onto this cyclical framework, this study aims to achieve two core goals: (1) systematically sort out the evolutionary process of lottery governance, analyze key challenges and adaptive adjustments at each stage, and summarize empirical insights from China’s policy practice; (2) derive theoretical implications from China’s empirical experience to advance policy process theory — particularly by identifying non-linear, recursive dynamics in the policy cycle that extend beyond the stylized sequential assumptions of mainstream models. Methods The study adopted a qualitative, theory-guided case study approach, primarily relying on an analysis of official policy documents, industry reports, and academic literature related to lottery policies in China. These sources are systematically reviewed to identify the key events, policy changes, and their underlying driving forces across different stages of the policy cycle. Results China’s lottery policies have evolved through distinct stages within the policy cycle framework. Policy Formulation refers to the evolutionary process through which lottery policies gradually take shape. Decision-Making denotes the optimal choices made by policymakers based on the prevailing circumstances. Besides, Policy Implementation involves the concrete operationalization of lottery policies by implementers. Policy Evaluation explores the tools and objectives of ongoing lottery policies. In addition, the outcomes of policy evaluation may trigger a re-examination of existing problems and solutions, prompting the policy cycle to re-enter agenda-setting or other stages, or to maintain the status quo. Discussion This research provides a theoretical reference for advancing lottery policy research. It also offers actionable implications for optimizing public policy systems, not only in the lottery sector but also in broader contexts. Furthermore, it contributes to wider debates on policy cycle dynamics, particularly in non-Western, state-led governance settings.