Evaluating the effects of climate change on energy use and cooling demands in mid-aged residential buildings in Saudi Arabia

Rising temperatures in hot-arid climates are expected to increase residential cooling demand; however, the future performance of Saudi Arabia’s mid-aged housing stock remains insufficiently quantified. This study evaluates a representative standalone villa in Riyadh (mid-aged cohort) using a DesignBuilder/EnergyPlus model calibrated against 2023 electricity-bill data. Future weather files for 2050 and 2080 were generated using CCWorldWeatherGen (v1.8) based on IPCC AR5 projections under moderate (RCP 4.5) and high (RCP 8.5) emissions pathways. Results indicate that total annual electricity consumption could increase by up to 36 % by 2080, while cooling loads may rise by nearly 70 % under the high-emission scenario. Seasonal analysis also suggests an extension of the cooling season into months that are currently comparatively mild. Overall, the findings highlight the growing vulnerability of existing residential buildings and underscore the need for targeted retrofit measures and cooling-demand management strategies under future climate conditions. ● Mid-aged villas represent 30 % of Saudi homes and were modeled for energy use. ● A real villa model was validated using 2023 electricity consumption data. ● Future cooling loads may rise by 70 % by 2080 under high-emission scenarios. ● Weather files were morphed for 2050 and 2080 using IPCC AR5 projections. ● Energy use and CO₂ emissions grow sharply under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios.