Mainstreaming Nature-based Solutions for Climate-induced Disaster Risk Reduction in the Philippines’ Build Better More Project: From Vicious to Virtuous Cycles

The Philippines confronts an escalating climate crisis, with annual disaster losses projected to reach 7.6% of GDP by 2030. Despite the proven efficacy of nature-based solutions (NbS), their integration into national development planning remains marginal, as epitomised by the flagship “Build Better More” (BBM) project. This study diagnoses this implementation gap as a fundamental systems failure: the systematic undervaluation of critical natural capital. This capital is conceptualised as a synergistic socio-ecological life-support system—the integrated integrity of ecological resilience, abiotic surroundings, and biotic communities (A+B+C=D). Consequently, NbS are treated as peripheral add-ons, perpetuating a self-reinforcing vicious cycle of maladaptive grey infrastructure investment and costly reconstruction. Employing systems thinking and causal loop modelling, we demonstrate how the BBM Project’s current structure actively degrades this foundation (A+B+C=D), locking development into a path of accelerating risk. A quantitative system dynamics model proves that a hybrid NbS-grey portfolio yields vastly superior economic and resilience outcomes. We therefore prescribe a transformative triple-track intervention: (1) innovative finance, for example, resilience bonds; (2) governance restructuring to integrate environmental mandates; and (3) legally embedded equity safeguards such as mandatory Social Equity and Distributional Impact Assessments. This integrated blueprint is designed to dismantle the vicious cycles and initiate stabilising virtuous cycles of socio-ecological resilience. We conclude that the BBM Project’s objectives are unattainable without this foundational institutional shift. While grounded in the Philippines, our diagnostic framework of vicious and virtuous cycles provides a transferable roadmap for climate-vulnerable nations to transition from costly degradation to a climate-resilient future.