Cohort-Based Analysis for the Prediction of Labor Force Numbers in the Construction Industry in Japan

This study used a cohort approach to project the workforce numbers in the construction industry for the Year 2045, leveraging future estimates at the municipal level. Using the cohort change rate method, I first estimated the future number of construction workforces and their average age in each municipality based on the rate of change observed from 2010 to 2020. Subsequently, I identified municipalities likely to experience a significant decline in young employees as unsustainable municipalities and discussed their characteristics. Finally, on the basis of the aforementioned findings, I explored potential countermeasures. The results confirmed that the number of future construction workforces in almost all municipalities unaffected by the catastrophe is decreasing and that the number of construction workforces is aging. Additionally, municipalities where the number of employees in the younger age groups decreased significantly tended to have <200 employees. A reason behind this issue is retirement due to the aging workforce. There is a retirement system for the older workforce because their work is hazardous. To encourage them to work longer, safety measures must be ensured in the work environment for older people. Another possible countermeasure is the development of digital transformation. Increased productivity can compensate for labor shortages.