Electric Vehicles to Support Grid Needs: Evidence from a Medium-Sized City

Vehicle-to-grid (V2G) services are gaining attention as a strategy to integrate electric vehicles (EVs) into sustainable energy systems. Although technological aspects have been widely studied, methodologies for identifying optimal V2G hubs and forecasting the energy available for grid transfer remain limited. This study introduces a data-driven approach to (i) identify the optimal V2G region based on the aggregated parking duration using floating car data (FCD; collected from GPS-enabled vehicles); (ii) estimate the surplus battery capacity of electric vehicles in that region; and (iii) forecast the energy transferable to the grid. The methodology applies spatial k-means clustering to define candidate zones, computes aggregated parking durations, and selects the optimal hub. The surplus energy is estimated considering the daily mobility needs of users, 20% reserve, and transfer rates. For forecasting, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and long short-term memory (LSTM) models are implemented and compared. The proposed methodology has been applied to a real case study, using 58 days of FCD observations. The empirical findings of this study show the goodness of the proposed methodology, and the opportunity offered V2G technology to support the sustainable use of energy. The ARIMA model demonstrated a superior forecasting performance with an RMSE of 52.424, MAE of 36.05, and MAPE of 12.98%, outperforming LSTM (RMSE of 99.09, MAE of 80.351, and MAPE of 53.20%) under the current data conditions. The results of this study suggest that for supporting grid needs of a medium-sized city, V2G plays a key role, and at the current status of the EV penetration, the use of FCD and predictive approaches is paramount for making an informed decision.