China’s Arms Exports and Security Engagement in the Sahel: Trends and Political Consequences, 2010–2024

This study analyzes China’s military exports and security involvement in the Sahel region, with a main focus on Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso between 2010 and 2024. Relying on the SIPRI and ACLED databases, the article discusses correlations between Chinese arms transfers and incidents of political violence and instability, and also applies country and year fixed effects panel models. In descriptive terms, Chinese arms exports strengthen military capabilities and move together with the rise in conflict events and fatalities; however, once Russian and French deliveries, the 2017 activation of the G5 Sahel force, and the country-specific Wagner deployments are controlled for, none of the ln TIV coefficients are statistically significant. In other words, larger volumes of arms transfers do not, by themselves, drive conflict intensity. Furthermore, the research highlights the multidimensional geopolitical competition involving other international actors such as the United States, Russia, Turkey, Iran, and India, and presents the diverse local political and civil society reactions that complicate decision-making. The study concludes with concrete policy recommendations aimed at improving transparency, governmental oversight, and international coordination in order to reduce the unintended negative consequences of foreign military assistance in the region.