The role of regional policy in e-commerce-driven agricultural exports: evidence from China

Purpose This study aims to explore how cross-border e-commerce (CBEC, enabled international businesses through platforms such as Alibaba International and JD Worldwide) and government policy support jointly affect agricultural export performance across regions in China. It particularly focuses on the moderating role of National High-Tech Zones (NHTZs, which serve as innovation hubs offering infrastructure and policy incentives) in strengthening the impact of CBEC on agricultural exports. Design/methodology/approach Using panel data from 31 Chinese provinces from 2009 to 2021, the study employs a robust empirical strategy combining an error correction model (ECM) to capture long-run equilibrium dynamics and geographically weighted regression (GWR) to examine spatial heterogeneity. Findings The results show that CBEC significantly boosts agricultural exports. More importantly, the number of NHTZs amplifies this effect, confirming a strong and positive moderating role. This synergistic effect is particularly pronounced in provinces with strong innovation-oriented institutional capacity, many of which are located in the eastern coastal region, while NHTZs play a more critical compensatory role in central and northern provinces where market-driven forces are weaker. Compared with central and northern regions, eastern and western provinces benefit more directly from CBEC development itself, and the marginal contribution of additional NHTZ support is relatively smaller. Research limitations/implications This study is limited by the availability of CBEC data at the provincial level, which required indirect estimation using customs and logistics proxies. Additionally, the dataset covers the period from 2009 to 2021, excluding recent years affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. Methodologically, the study employs established models (ECM and GWR) without incorporating advanced machine learning or dynamic forecasting techniques. Future research could explore post-pandemic shifts in policy impact, use real-time CBEC data and apply predictive models to simulate how regional innovation policies shape agricultural exports under evolving digital trade environments. Originality/value This study contributes to the growing literature on digital trade and regional policy by uncovering the moderating role of innovation-driven policy zones in facilitating agricultural exports. It also highlights the importance of differentiated region-specific strategies to enhance the effectiveness of e-commerce policies in the agricultural sector. The findings may offer useful policy insights for other developing countries.