Coupling Mechanisms Between Vegetation Phenology and Gross Primary Productivity in Alpine Grasslands on the Southern Slope of the Qilian Mountains

Understanding the coupling mechanisms between vegetation phenology and carbon productivity is essential for assessing ecosystem responses to climate change and guiding sustainable grassland management. This study focuses on stable alpine grasslands on the southern slope of the Qilian Mountains from 2001 to 2020, a climatically sensitive but relatively under-investigated transition zone on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau. We utilized MODIS NDVI time-series (MOD13Q1) and the latest PML V2 gross primary productivity (GPP) product at 500 m resolution to quantify changes in the start (SOS), end (EOS), and length (LOS) of the growing season. A pixel-wise linear regression approach was applied to evaluate the sensitivity of GPP to phenological metrics, explicitly characterizing how much GPP changes in response to unit shifts in SOS, EOS and LOS. Compared with previous studies that mainly described large-scale correlations between phenology and GPP or relied on coarser GPP products, this study provides a pixel-level, sensitivity-based assessment of phenology–carbon coupling in alpine grasslands using a long-term, phenology–GPP dataset tailored to the Qilian alpine region. The results revealed trends of earlier SOS, delayed EOS, and extended LOS, accompanied by a gradual increase in GPP. However, phenology–GPP coupling exhibited notable spatial heterogeneity. In mid- and low-altitude areas, extended growing seasons enhanced GPP, whereas high-altitude zones showed limited or even negative responses, likely due to climatic constraints such as cold stress and thermal–moisture mismatches. To better understand these spatial differences, we constructed a three-dimensional phenology–GPP sensitivity space and applied k-means clustering to delineate three ecological functional zones: (1) high carbon sink potential, (2) ecologically fragile regions, and (3) neutral buffers. This sensitivity-based functional zonation moves beyond traditional correlation analyses and provides a process-oriented and spatially explicit framework for ecosystem service assessment, carbon sink enhancement and adaptive land-use strategies in sensitive mountain environments.