Analysis of Sustainable Vegetable Production in Guangdong Province, China, Based on the Carbon Footprint

Climate change induced by greenhouse gas emissions is currently one of the most important challenges of the world. Against this backdrop, we deeply explore the temporal variation characteristics of vegetable production in Guangdong Province, a major province of China from the carbon footprint perspective. The aim is to promote the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural production and carbon sequestration, as well as sustainable agricultural development. We primarily adopted the carbon emission coefficient provided by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and utilized data from the China Rural Statistical Yearbook and the Guangdong Rural Statistical Yearbook from 1990 to 2022 to analyze the changing characteristics of the carbon footprint of vegetable production in Guangdong Province. In addition, we used the grey prediction model GM (1, 1) to estimate the parameters and test the residual. Then, the carbon emission of vegetable production in Guangdong province was predicted from 2023 to 2060. The research results show that agricultural input is the largest source of carbon emissions, accounting for 51.99–66.55%, followed by farmland soil utilization (33.45–48.01%). Within agricultural input, fertilizers, pesticides, and mulching films are the main sources of carbon emissions. Based on the data from 2011 to 2022, it is predicted that the net carbon emissions of vegetable production in Guangdong Province will continue to decline after 2022. Based on the above findings, it is suggested to promote the sustainable development of the vegetable industry by increasing policy support for the R&D and promotion of green and low-carbon technologies and green vegetable production, reducing agricultural input, and promoting the formation of the low-carbon production concept.