The politics of informal settlements in African cities: Comparative insights from Accra, Freetown, Harare and Kampala

Many of the development challenges represented by informal settlements in global South cities – where most low-income urban residents live – are profoundly political in nature, involving entrenched interests, the interplay of competitive and patronage politics and the constrained political agency of low-income urban residents. However, and despite the growing literature on the politics of democratisation, clientelism and ethnicity in African cities, we lack comparative insights into how these forms of politics shape urban development and whether this varies across different cities and settlements. This comparative study argues that ‘political settlements analysis’ can help explain how politics shapes tenure security and social provisioning in the informal settlements of African cities, and how this varies across national contexts. We problematise some current claims around the prevalence of political clientelism and suggest that the influence of ethnicity is contingent on how political power is instrumentalised by ruling elites in different political settlements. Our within-city analysis finds strong evidence to support Holland's (2016) contention that ‘forbearance’ has emerged as the main strategy used by ruling elites to manage the political and developmental challenges presented by informal settlements. The paper shows how a combination of forbearance and political settlements analysis can offer a more holistic conceptual framework through which to understand the politics and political economy of urban development in Africa. • Development prospects for informal settlements in Africa are shaped by different national political settlement types. • Political clientelism and ethnicity are less influential than current literature suggests. • Ruling elites use ‘forbearance’ to manage political and developmental challenges within informal settlements. • Popular agency is increasingly influential over tenure security and social provisioning. • Forbearance and political settlements analysis can help guide future research into the politics of development in informal settlements.