Population Structure and Prediction of Potential Suitable Areas of Anemone davidii Franch. (Ranunculaceae) from Southwestern China

Anemone davidii Franch. is an herbaceous plant with high ornamental and medicinal value belonging to the Ranunculaceae family. Understanding its genetic diversity and predicting its potential habitat shifts are crucial for its germplasm conservation. In this study, we analyzed the genetic diversity of 164 individuals from A. davidii and its relatives using genotypic sequencing (GBS) technology. The results indicated that the expected heterozygosity (He) of 12 A. davidii populations ranged from 0.074 to 0.095, while the observed heterozygosity (Ho) ranged from 0.105 to 0.127. Phylogenetic, principal component (PCA), and population structure analyses revealed clear genetic separation among A. davidii, A. griffithii, and A. scabriuscula. The 12 A. davidii populations were grouped into three genetic clusters. Six populations—CQ, ES, SNJ, SZ, TR, and WX—of Central China were clustered together. Southwestern region populations were divided into two clusters (DG, PZ, SF and DY, EMS, HY). Low genetic differentiation values (Fst, 0.018–0.053) and high levels of gene flow (Nm, 4.4678–13.639) between populations were observed in this study, indicating that genetic differentiation was lower between adjacent populations. We also used the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model to predict changes in suitable distribution areas of A. davidii across four time periods and two climate scenarios (RCP4.5, RCP8.5). Compared to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the current suitable habitat area has contracted. Future climate projections indicated a progressive range contraction under both scenarios. Therefore, appropriate conservation measures are needed to address its limited genetic diversity and projected habitat loss under climate change. Our findings provide insights into the population genetics of A. davidii and the impact of climate change on plants of Southwestern China.