Beyond Tax Shields: Re-Examination of Sustainable Transition of the Real Estate Sector in China

This study proposes a dual-shield framework to elucidate the capital structure dynamics within China’s policy-intensive real estate sector. We delineate a coercive policy shield wherein binding regulations supersede market-based incentives, and a proactive sustainability shield which recognizes how superior environmental performance can lead to reduced financing costs. Analyzing data from Chinese A-share firms during 2003 to 2021, we present robust evidence that supports both mechanisms. Notably, the effect of the debt tax shield is diminished in real estate sectors, underscoring the policy shield’s ability to negate traditional financial incentives. In addition, the macroprudential tightening implemented in 2017 has disproportionately disrupted leverage adjustments, especially among firms subsequently affected by the “Three Red Lines” policy. Rigorous quasi-experimental analyses additionally illustrate that green bond issuers experience a significant and enduring reduction in their cost of debt, thereby establishing a substantive sustainability shield. Our findings contribute to the literature on sustainable finance by conceptualizing approaches that extend beyond tax shields, effectively integrating regulatory and market forces to align the capital structures with objectives for sustainable transition.