Temporal and spatial dynamics of Net Primary Productivity and prediction of wetland carbon sequestration potential on the Tibetan Plateau

Key findings were: (1) NDVI distribution was higher in the southeast than in the northwest, with temperature influencing its value. (2) Spatial distribution of NPP on the Tibetan Plateau exhibits a typical landscape pattern of "patch-corridor-matrix." The maximum NPP of vegetation was 1,112.82 gC ⋅ m^-2 ⋅ a^-1 for 2025-2030. Projections of NPP for 2025-2030 suggest an increase of approximately 50% relative to current levels by 2045, indicating a substantial enhancement of the carbon sink potential over the coming two decades. (3) Carbon sequestration potential of wetlands on the Plateau ranges from 0 to 100 gC ⋅ m^-2 ⋅ a^-1, with high carbon sink potential concentrated near Palong Tsangpo, the largest tributary of the Yarlung Tsangpo River. (4) Woodland NPP has the highest mean value and rate of change. Furthermore, analysis of 2025 land use data shows that forestland and grassland are the dominant land cover types in the Yunnan, Sichuan, and Southeastern Xizang Sections of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Their high proportions correspond significantly to high regional NDVI values, indicating the spatial heterogeneity of NDVI distribution is driven by land cover changes rather than directional factors. (5) Correlation analysis indicated strong positive correlations between precipitation and solar radiation with NPP. NPP does not increase or decrease with increasing temperature; instead, it tends to increase within suitable temperature ranges.