A Century of Vehicular Emissions in Brazil: Unveiling the Impacts of Unique Fuel Mix on Air Quality

Global emission inventories often fail to capture the complexities of vehicular pollution in regions with unique fuel mixes, such as Brazil's extensive biofuel use, leading to significant uncertainties in atmospheric modeling. This study presents a century-long (1960-2100) bottom-up vehicular emission inventory for Brazil, leveraging locally derived emission factors. Our estimates reveal substantial discrepancies in magnitude, timing, and speciation of non-CO<sub>2</sub> pollutants (CO, NMHC, PM<sub>2.5</sub>) compared to leading global inventories (EDGAR, CEDS, CAMS), highlighting critical inaccuracies in widely used data sets. More critically, future projections under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) uncover a novel positive feedback mechanism: rising temperatures significantly enhance vehicular evaporative nonmethane hydrocarbon (NMHC) emissions. This temperature-dependent increase and subsequent NMHC oxidation to CO<sub>2</sub> suggest an overlooked pathway that could amplify climate warming and air pollution globally, particularly after a breakpoint around 2050 (<i>p</i> < 0.05). While historical emissions peaked in the 1990s-2000s, nonexhaust PM becomes increasingly important. Air quality simulations using our inventory in the MUSICA model show good regional PM<sub>2.5</sub> agreement but highlight challenges in resolving local primary pollutant peaks. This comprehensive inventory provides crucial data for Brazil and uncovers globally relevant climate-chemistry interactions, urging a re-evaluation of regional specificities in global emission assessments.

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Journal
Environmental Science & Technology
Published
2026-02-04
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.5c08400
Primary Topic
Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols
Type
article
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article

A Century of Vehicular Emissions in Brazil: Unveiling the Impacts of Unique Fuel Mix on Air Quality

Pablo Lichtig, Leila Droprinchinski Martins, Sérgio Ibarra-Espinosa, Luis Carlos Belalcázar et al.
Environmental Science & Technology
Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols
article

A Century of Vehicular Emissions in Brazil: Unveiling the Impacts of Unique Fuel Mix on Air Quality

Pablo Lichtig, Leila Droprinchinski Martins, Sérgio Ibarra-Espinosa, Luis Carlos Belalcázar, Sebastián Diez, Alejandro Casallas, Rosana Abrutzky, Janaina Nascimento, G. P. Brasseur, Valeria Díaz, Edmilson dias de Freitas, Mario E. Gavidia-Calderón, Héctor Jorquera, Karl Ropkins, Marcelo Romero de Moraes, Nicolás Huneeus, Daniel Schuch, Fidel Vallejo, Marco A. Franco, Leonardo Hoinaski, Rizzieri Pedruzzi, RY Ynoue, Benjamin Gaubert, Angel Liduvino Vara-Vela, Z. A. Mera, Louisa Emmons, Guilherme Martins Pereira, Maria de Fatima Andrade, Iara da Silva, Néstor Y. Rojas
article en

Abstract

Global emission inventories often fail to capture the complexities of vehicular pollution in regions with unique fuel mixes, such as Brazil's extensive biofuel use, leading to significant uncertainties in atmospheric modeling. This study presents a century-long (1960-2100) bottom-up vehicular emission inventory for Brazil, leveraging locally derived emission factors. Our estimates reveal substantial discrepancies in magnitude, timing, and speciation of non-CO<sub>2</sub> pollutants (CO, NMHC, PM<sub>2.5</sub>) compared to leading global inventories (EDGAR, CEDS, CAMS), highlighting critical inaccuracies in widely used data sets. More critically, future projections under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) uncover a novel positive feedback mechanism: rising temperatures significantly enhance vehicular evaporative nonmethane hydrocarbon (NMHC) emissions. This temperature-dependent increase and subsequent NMHC oxidation to CO<sub>2</sub> suggest an overlooked pathway that could amplify climate warming and air pollution globally, particularly after a breakpoint around 2050 (<i>p</i> < 0.05). While historical emissions peaked in the 1990s-2000s, nonexhaust PM becomes increasingly important. Air quality simulations using our inventory in the MUSICA model show good regional PM<sub>2.5</sub> agreement but highlight challenges in resolving local primary pollutant peaks. This comprehensive inventory provides crucial data for Brazil and uncovers globally relevant climate-chemistry interactions, urging a re-evaluation of regional specificities in global emission assessments.

Environmental Science & TechnologyVol. 60(6)
NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research (US), Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (BR), Universidade Tecnológica Federal do Paraná (BR), University of Leeds (GB), Institute of Science and Technology Austria (AT), Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (US), Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile (CL), Universidade de São Paulo (BR), University of Colorado Boulder (US), University of Colorado System (US), Universidad Nacional de Colombia (CO), Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (BR), Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina (BR), Faculty (United Kingdom) (GB), Centre For Sustainable Urban Development (CL), Berkeley Air Monitoring Group (United States) (US), Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (TR), Centro Nacional de Sanidad Ambiental (ES), Fundación Española para la Ciencia y la Tecnología (ES), Atmos (Czechia) (CZ), Universidad Técnica del Norte (EC), Fundación General (ES), Atmospheric Observing Systems (United States) (US), Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CL), Instituto de Geofísica y Astronomía (CU), Universidad Nacional de Chimborazo (EC), Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (DE), National University of Avellaneda (AR), Universidad del Desarrollo del Estado de Puebla (MX), NOAA Global Systems Laboratory, National University of Engineering (PE), University of Chile (CL), NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (US), Universidad del Noreste (MX), Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica (AR)
Climate action
Openalex Percentile: Top 75%
Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols
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