Mechanisms and Simulations of Corporate Investment Decision-Making in Forestry Carbon Sequestration Under China’s Carbon Market

Within the framework of the carbon market mechanism, corporate investments to secure forestry carbon credits play a pivotal role in mobilizing social capital for ecological construction and realizing the value of ecosystem services. This study integrates information decision theory and Bayesian network analysis to simulate corporate investment decision-making for forestry carbon sequestration within China’s carbon market. Through this approach, we explore the decision-making mechanisms behind corporate investments in forestry carbon sequestration and conduct decision simulations. The findings reveal several key insights: (1) External factors, including tax incentives, consumer preference for low-carbon products, and societal environmental awareness, exert a significant impact on the valuation of forestry carbon sequestration investments. Internally, the challenge posed by technological costs in achieving emission reductions significantly influences the evaluation of forestry carbon sequestration investments. (2) Investment value judgments are shaped by the nature of the decision-making problem, which inherently involves a synergistic relationship. (3) Corporations recognize the importance of forestry carbon sequestration in reducing the costs of emission reduction, formulating low-carbon development plans, expanding investment opportunities, and enhancing the quality of forestry carbon sequestration. (4) The collective value judgment of corporates regarding forestry carbon sequestration in terms of cost reduction for emission reduction, low-carbon development planning, investment opportunity expansion, and corporate image enhancement significantly influences their investment decisions in forestry carbon sequestration. (5) Corporate investment decisions exhibit a strong preference for market-based pricing and risk-sharing mechanisms. Consequently, enhancing the carbon information disclosure system and the carbon market trading mechanism, as well as establishing price protection and income stabilization expectations for forestry carbon sequestration, can encourage corporates to make investments in this area. This not only aids in the green, low-carbon transformation of businesses but also addresses the challenge of positive externalities associated with forestry carbon sequestration through market-oriented solutions.