Does China’s Low-Carbon City Pilot Policy Effectively Reduce Carbon Emissions? A Dual Perspective on Carbon Emissions and Efficiency

The evaluation of China’s Low-Carbon City Pilot Policy (LCCP) is critical to understanding its role in mitigating climate challenges associated with carbon emissions. While most existing research has concentrated narrowly on emission reductions within pilot cities, broader improvements in emission performance have often been overlooked. To address this gap, our study employs an integrated methodological framework combining Difference-in-Differences (DID) with Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), enabling a dual-perspective assessment of policy effectiveness. Baseline regression results confirm that the LCCP has led to a statistically significant decrease in total urban carbon emissions. Pilot cities achieved an average reduction in emission levels that was 4.8 percentage points greater than that of non-pilot cities, underscoring the policy’s tangible impact. Further analysis using DEA reveals a consistent year-on-year enhancement in the dynamic carbon emission performance of these cities. Regionally disaggregated results highlight distinct drivers of low-carbon performance: in low-emission cities such as Huangshan, gains were primarily efficiency-led; in medium-emission cities like Beijing, technological advancement served as the main catalyst; and in high-emission cities including Shanghai, both efficiency gains and technological innovation jointly propelled progress. These findings offer valuable empirical insights for customizing low-carbon transition pathways across cities with varying emission profiles.