From farm to food systems: developing aquaculture models to explore their role in food systems

• Simulated performance of key aquaculture production systems in Europe using existing dynamic energy budget models. • Defined European coastal temperature clusters matched aquaculture locations. • Model predictions of harvest time matched empirical farm data. • Framework enables integration of aquaculture system into food system models. As a vital food source worldwide, aquaculture is set to play an essential role in future food systems. To explore potential configurations for feeding a growing population within planetary limits, agro-ecological food system and resource allocation models can offer valuable insights. So far, the potential of aquaculture in such modelling studies have focused on a few species. Understanding the large diversity of aquaculture species and farming practices, however, is key to determine their contribution to future food systems. With limited empirical data on aquaculture production systems across different environmental conditions and intensities, bioenergetic models could be used to predict growth, serving as an input for food system modelling. In this study, we first selected Atlantic salmon, European seabass, and common carp to represent the variety of finfish aquaculture in Europe. We characterised key production systems for these species using contrasting yet realistic management practices and created coastal water temperature clusters for Europe. For each aquaculture system, we first simulated life-cycle growth performance using a dynamic energy budget (DEB) model, and then predicted nutrient requirements and feed intake using feed compound data. The temperature clusters we defined were found to overlap with existing Atlantic salmon and European seabass aquaculture locations. When compared to empirical farm data, the DEB model accurately predicted harvest times for the various systems and species. Incorporating these aquaculture systems in food system or resource allocation models can enhance our understanding of aquaculture’s role in future food systems in Europe.