Transformer-Based Dynamic Flame Image Analysis for Real-Time Carbon Content Prediction in BOF Steelmaking

Accurately predicting molten steel carbon content plays a crucial role in improving productivity and energy efficiency during the Basic Oxygen Furnace (BOF) steelmaking process. However, current data-driven methods primarily focus on endpoint carbon content prediction, while lacking sufficient investigation into real-time curve forecasting during the blowing process, which hinders real-time closed-loop BOF control. In this article, a novel Transformer-based framework is presented for real-time carbon content prediction. The contributions include three main aspects. First, the prediction paradigm is reconstructed by converting the regression task into a sequence classification task, which demonstrates superior robustness and accuracy compared to traditional regression methods. Second, the focus is shifted from traditional endpoint-only forecasting to long-term prediction by introducing a Transformer-based model for continuous, real-time prediction of carbon content. Last, spatial–temporal feature representation is enhanced by integrating an optical flow channel with the original RGB channels, and the resulting four-channel input tensor effectively captures the dynamic characteristics of the converter mouth flame. Experimental results on an independent test dataset demonstrate favorable performance of the proposed framework in predicting carbon content trajectories. The model achieves high accuracy, reaching 84% during the critical decarburization endpoint phase where carbon content decreases from 0.0829 to 0.0440, and delivers predictions with approximately 75% of errors within ±0.05. Such performance demonstrates the practical potential for supporting intelligent BOF steelmaking.