Improvement Strategies for China’s Chip Industrial Chain Resilience Under Global Competition: A System Dynamics Model

In today’s increasingly fierce global competition in science and technology, China’s chip industry is facing a global technology blockade and market containment. Against this backdrop, research on the resilience of China’s chip industrial chain is of great significance to improve the survival and recovery ability of the chip industry under extreme conditions. Therefore, this study uses the system dynamics method to build a simulation model for the resilience of China’s chip industry. The model examines four regulatory scenarios: enhancing R&D intensity, elevating innovation development, promoting resource recycling and utilization, and expanding the depth of policy promotion. The simulation results of China’s chip industrial chain from 2014 to 2024 show the following: First, the resilience level of China’s chip industrial chain initially decreases but then subsequently increases. Second, all four regulatory scenarios improve the simulated resilience value of the industrial chain to varying degrees. Among them, the regulatory scenario of elevating innovation development has the most pronounced effect. However, while the improvement from promoting resource recycling and utilization is relatively limited, it helps to continuously improve the safety level of the chip industrial chain. Third, moderately increasing the total intensity of R&D and expanding the depth of policy promotion are conducive to regulation of the current chip industrial chain’s elasticity.