Using Scenarios for Reducing Uncertainties in Biodiversity Conservation: From Global Targets to European Steppes
Scenario analysis allows assessing how complex socio-ecological systems might respond to different policy pathways. We usedan expert-based participatory approach to explore how four different European socio-ecological scenarios could impact (1) the implementation of the Kunming–Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (KM-GBF) and (2) the achievement of priority conservation actions for safeguarding European steppe ecosystems. KM-GBF targets were expected to be met only under the scenario with increased commitment for sustainable development goals and global cooperation, but hardly achievable under themost environment-adverse and resource-demanding scenarios. Integrating different views from these scenarios, we identified six overarching recommendations for the conservation of European steppe ecosystems, including improving public awareness, empowering local communities, and promoting the engagement of private companies into conservation planning. Our approachidentifies how socioeconomic drivers influence the success of the KM-GBF and the conservation of European steppes, providing arange of general conservation actions structured and prioritized to be effective under a wide range of likely future developments.
Authors
- Felicita Varela
- Marina Golivets (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1278-2663)
- Rocío Tarjuelo (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0638-1911)
- Carolina Bravo (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5640-255X)
- Matthias Vögeli (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3408-0972)
- Radovan Václav (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0396-8810)
- Andrea Santangeli (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0273-1977)
- Santi Mañosa (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0681-1552)
- David Giralt (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9712-1957)
- Alejandro Onrubia (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8860-3524)
- Tiago Mendes
- João Gameiro (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9871-9763)
- Margarita Reverter (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0979-871X)
- Martin Šálek (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2639-9745)
- Gabriel López‐Poveda (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6779-9318)
- Xabier Cabodevilla (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5793-7916)
- Ana Teresa Marques (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3279-643X)
- Julia Zurdo (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7283-3322)
- Guillaume Latombe (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8589-8387)
- David Pedro Serrano (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5383-3944)
- Adrián Barrero (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2980-1202)
- Antonio Leiva
- Elena D. Concepción
- Pedro P Olea
- François Mougeot
- Ana Benítez‐López
- Gerard Bota Cabau
- Piotr Tryjanowski
- Natalia Revilla‐Martín
- Beatriz Arroyo
- Lluís Brotons
- Manuel B. Morales Prieto
- Carlos A. Martín
- Mattia Brambilla
- Bernd Lenzner
- Bolonio Luis
- C.. Pérez‐Granados
- Daniel Bustillo‐de la Rosa
- Boris Nikolov
- Francisco Moreira
- João Fernando Santos Silva
- Germán M. López‐Iborra
- Núria Roura‐Pascual
- Iván Salgado
- Pedro Sáez‐Gómez
- Mario Díaz
- Julia Gómez‐Catasús
- Gema Ruiz Jiménez
- Fabián Casas
- Ana Sanz‐Pérez
- Juan Traba
Publication Details
- Journal
- Dipòsit Digital de la Universitat de Barcelona (Universitat de Barcelona)
- Published
- 2025-08-28
- Primary Topic
- Land Use and Ecosystem Services
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 0.00