Demand and Net Import Modeling and Forecasting for Wood Products in a Country with Limited Forest Resources (Tunisia)

This paper analyzes long-term trends in the apparent consumption and external deficit of wood and wood-derived products in Tunisia using annual data covering the period of 1975–2024. Tunisia’s limited forest resources and increasing domestic demand have generated a structural dependence on imports, reflected in a persistent and widening trade imbalance. To investigate the determinants of this situation, ten econometric log–log models were estimated for the major product categories, including sawnwood, panels, veneers and plywood, newsprint, printing paper, and wrapping paper. The models assess how apparent consumption and external deficits could be explained through changes in income levels (GDP per capita), prices, technological progress, and labor costs. Income elasticity is found to be the primary driver of demand, while price effects remain relatively weak across most categories. Based on the estimated elasticities, demand projections were developed up to 2050 under three alternative income growth scenarios: a trend scenario (1.2% annual growth), a pessimistic scenario (0.6%), and an optimistic scenario (2%). Under the trend scenario, total demand for wood and wood-derived products is projected to increase by about 52% by 2050, leading to a further widening of the gap between domestic supply and demand, with higher growth rates under the optimistic scenario and more moderate increases under the pessimistic one. These findings highlight the challenges Tunisia faces in managing the increasing pressure on its forest resources and underscore the need for strategic planning to ensure the long-term sustainability of the wood and wood-derived industries.