CLIMAAX M16 Deliverable: Phase 2 – Climate risk assessment - Sustainable Climate Outcomes for People of Eastern Slovakia (SCOPE) Slovakia, Košice Region

This deliverable presents the results of Phase 2 of the Climate Risk Assessment (CRA) carried out within the SCOPE project for the Košice and functional urban area. It builds on Phase 1 outcomes by refining datasets, integrating stakeholder input, and expanding the assessment to better reflect local climatic, social, and infrastructural conditions. The objective of this phase was to transform preliminary risk screening into a robust, locally grounded assessment that can directly inform adaptation planning and decision-making. Phase 2 presents a comprehensive assessment of present and future climate risks in the Košice Functional Urban Region (UMR), covering their spatial patterns, impacts on vulnerable population groups, and implications for critical infrastructure. It illustrates how European-scale climate projections can be systematically combined with national observations and local knowledge to underpin evidence-based climate resilience and adaptation planning. During Phase 2, the original CLIMAAX workflows for heatwaves and extreme rainfall were refined using improved local datasets and validated against measured observations from the Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute (SHMÚ). Based on stakeholder consultations and a regional survey conducted in 2025, two additional hazards—wildfires and droughts—were incorporated to reflect emerging and intensifying risks. The assessment focuses on the medium-term climate horizon (2021–2050), using EURO-CORDEX scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), benchmarked against SHMÚ national climate projections. Key results confirm a significant increase in heat-related risks, including a marked rise in heatwave days, tropical days, and tropical nights. A refined heatwave workflow combining satellite-derived land surface temperature with in-situ measurements enabled the identification of persistent urban heat islands, particularly in densely built residential areas. High and very high heat exposure was identified at numerous critical locations, including kindergartens, hospitals, social-care facilities, and socially disadvantaged settlements, highlighting priority areas for intervention. The extreme rainfall analysis strengthened the local evidence base through a hazard-impact database, revealing an increasing frequency and intensity of high-impact precipitation events associated with flash floods and pluvial flooding. Wildfire risk mapping indicated growing exposure of critical buildings in forest-adjacent areas, while the drought assessment identified potential future revenue losses for key regional crops under warmer and drier conditions. Across all hazards, the assessment emphasised the heightened vulnerability of children, older adults, people with health limitations, and socially disadvantaged groups. This deliverable contributes to the overall CLIMAAX project by demonstrating the practical application of a harmonised CRA framework at the local level, while addressing data gaps, governance challenges, and equity considerations. The results provide a solid evidence base for prioritising adaptation measures, aligning city and regional strategies, and supporting access to climate-adaptation funding. In conclusion, Phase 2 confirms that climate risks in the Košice region are intensifying and increasingly interconnected, with heatwaves emerging as the most critical hazard, compounded by drought, wildfire, and extreme rainfall impacts. Integrating local data and stakeholder knowledge substantially improves the relevance and usability of climate risk assessments.