Change in the Intensity of Soil Erosion via Water in the Vistula River Basin in Future Climate: A Comparison of the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 Scenarios (2021–2050) Using the MUSLE Model

This study aims to assess how climate change will affect the intensity of soil erosion in the Vistula River basin by the mid-21st century. A simulation framework based on the SWAT–MUSLE model was applied, calibrated, and validated against observed streamflow data and driven by climatic forcings from the EURO-CORDEX ensemble (the RACMO22E, HIRHAM5, and RCA4 models forced by EC-EARTH GCM) under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Simulations were conducted at a daily time step for the years 2021–2050 and compared to the reference period 2013–2018. The analysis included the decadal and seasonal aggregation of the sediment yield (SYLD, t ha−1 yr−1). The results indicate that, relative to the baseline value (~1.84 t ha−1 yr−1), the SYLD increases under both scenarios. In RCP 4.5, the rise culminates during 2031–2040 and then stabilizes in 2041–2050. Under RCP 8.5, a continuous upward trend is observed, with the highest values projected for 2041–2050, particularly for the HIRHAM5 realization. The largest relative increases occur in summer (JJA) and, in the final decade, also in autumn (SON); in the early horizon, autumn may locally exhibit declines that later shift to increases. The spread among RCM realizations remains significant and should be interpreted as an expression of projection uncertainty. The practical implications include prioritizing soil protection measures in sub-catchments with high LS factors and soils susceptible to water erosion, strengthening runoff and sediment control in summer, and planning maintenance of small-scale retention infrastructure. Study limitations arise from the inherent structure of the MUSLE model, bias correction procedures for climate data, and the representation of extreme events. Therefore, greater emphasis is placed on the direction and seasonality of changes rather than absolute numerical values.