Assessing the impacts of climate change in Kenya using climate, land, energy, and water systems (CLEWs) modelling to provide policy insights

• CLEWs-Kenya analysis used projected climate change conditions (RCPs). • We developed a hard-linked model using OSeMOSYS Global and GeoCLEWs. • The model shows that geothermal is preferred across all climate change pathways. • A developing country may struggle to address the impacts of climate change. • We recommend integrating climate risk in long-term energy and water planning. This paper applies climate-land-energy-water interactions to assess the impacts of projected climate change on long-term electricity generation, land, and water use through an open-source modelling framework. To build the model, we used open-source tools: OSeMOSYS Global provided energy data, whereas Geo-CLEWs provided land and water data; both tools are freely available on GitHub. We then investigated the impact climate change-related policies would have on Kenya’s system under the projected climate change conditions. Key results indicate that capital investments in the extreme climate pathway are higher in the energy sector as geothermal technology replaces hydropower. This necessitates integrating climate risk into long-term energy planning. Also, our model shows that imposing an emission limit in the system leads to increased capital investments in the energy sector, decreased crop yields, and heightened agricultural water demand across all climate change pathways. Consequently, we recommend that policymakers incentivize complementary measures, such as the adoption of green technologies in farming and climate-smart agriculture. Therefore, it is evident that, while the emission limit will ensure that the Nationally Determined Contribution is met, the trade-offs may challenge the sustainability of a developing country such as Kenya.