Tourism development systems: A diagnostic framework

Tourism development involves complex interdependencies among institutions, infrastructure, resources, and sustainability, yet most studies analyze these dimensions in isolation. This paper asks: which systemic interrelationships most strongly shape sustainable tourism outcomes across countries? Using the 2024 Travel and Tourism Development Index, we apply a four-phase framework—expectation–maximization clustering, Bayesian network tree–augmented naïve Bayes classification, partial least squares structural modeling, and importance–performance mapping—to analyze 119 tourism systems. Results show the enabling environment and resources as the strongest drivers, infrastructure exerting both direct and policy-mediated effects, and sustainability functioning mainly as an institutional mediator. Findings extend resource-based, institutional, and ecological modernization theories and provide policymakers with a replicable diagnostic tool to target leverage points and close structural gaps.