From disaster to possibility: advancing alternative tourism futures in Jasper National Park post-wildfire

Purpose This study examines how tourism professionals and community representatives envision the future of tourism in Jasper National Park (JNP) after a devastating wildfire in July 2024. It explores how recovery dynamics intersect with structural vulnerabilities and whether disruption can open pathways for transformative change. Design/methodology/approach Guided by the Futures Triangle framework (Inayatullah, 2023) and the Pressure and Release model (Wisner et al., 2004), semi-structured interviews were conducted with 15 tourism professionals and community representatives in JNP. Reflexive thematic analysis was used to identify how structural vulnerabilities, recovery dynamics and future visions intersect. Findings The results reveal a tension between systemic vulnerabilities and aspirational futures for tourism in JNP post-wildfire. Pre-existing vulnerabilities, including housing insecurity, workforce precarity, governance misalignment, undercapacity, climate risk and economic fragility, left tourism highly susceptible to disturbance and were further exacerbated by the wildfire. Still, interviewees envisioned regenerative, equitable and climate-resilient futures, though these remain constrained by limited capacity, jurisdictional fragmentation, risk aversion and entrenched power dynamics. Originality/value This is the first empirical study to apply a futures-thinking framework and a critical disaster lens to a post-wildfire tourism context in a world-renowned protected area destination. It offers a critical perspective on the limits and challenges of resilience discourses in tourism and highlights the importance of effective governance, equity and imagination in advancing tourism transformation amid the polycrisis.