Surface Rationality and Deep Mimicry: Regional Selection of Energy Priorities Under Smart Specialization 2021–2027

Evidence-based prioritization is essential for effective specialization strategies (RIS3). However, there is a scarcity of evidence on whether regions are leveraging their own strengths or mimicking other policies. This study examines 236 EU regions, 178,314 publications, 116,336 projects and 470 RIS3 energy priorities (2021–2027) across 112 energy-related topics. We measure capability potential in two dimensions: proven areas of activity (inside strengths) and related areas with similar technologies (adjacent frontiers). Selective behavior is described using exploitation and exploration indicators, a stretch indicator and portfolio–priority adjustment indicators. Our findings reveal that surface rationality masks deep mimicry. Capabilities drive the direction of selection but not its scale. Regions select less than 10% of available strengths or adjacent areas. Instead, 40.3% of priorities are in ambitious areas, such as hydrogen and offshore wind energy, that exceed the potential opportunities. The portfolio–priority alignment is minimal at 0.10, and the wishful gaps are close to the maximum at 1.85 out of 2.0. Conversely, regions leave 93% of their potential untapped. RIS3 energy priorities indicate a greater desire to follow priorities than an ability to act. We suggest that policymakers should conduct capability audits to confirm absorptive capacity before setting priorities, establish benchmarks in strategy monitoring to measure the exploitation and exploration of regional assets and provide financial incentives that reward choices based on capabilities rather than historical alignment. Future research should examine whether capability-based priorities outperform choices that merely mimic others.