Policy and Financial Implications of Net Energy Metering in Arctic Power Systems: A Case Study of Alaska’s Railbelt

The transition toward sustainable energy in Arctic and subarctic regions requires innovative approaches that account for both the unique geographical conditions and the economic and policy challenges associated with isolated power systems. This study examines how net energy metering (NEM) and net billing schemes influence distributed solar photovoltaic (PV) adoption and financial performance among utilities in Alaska’s Railbelt. The Railbelt, which supplies power to three-quarters of the state’s population, remains heavily reliant on natural gas and exhibits limited renewable penetration compared to other arctic regions. Using a stochastic risk-based modeling framework with Monte Carlo simulations and the Bass diffusion model, the analysis estimates the 15-year financial impacts of different NEM adoption scenarios on utilities. Results show that while NEM drives PV adoption through higher compensation for exported generation, it also increases potential revenue losses for utilities compared to net billing. Policy innovations like those introduced in Alaska’s House Bill 164 (HB 164), which establishes a reimbursement fund to mitigate utility revenue losses, indicate that regulatory work is being designed to balance distributed generation incentives with economic sustainability. This work provides a baseline for understanding how a policy framework influences both utility and consumer economics in terms of NEM and solar PV adoption in Arctic and subarctic systems.