Why Education Systems Fail in Complex Transitions

Education systems are increasingly called upon to support societal responses to complex socio-technical transitions marked by uncertainty, non-linearity, and interdependence. Despite this growing expectation, education systems continue to struggle in such contexts, suggesting limitations that extend beyond issues of pedagogy or implementation. This paper examines the structural and epistemic sources of this mismatch by drawing on literature from complexity theory, education research, and studies of knowledge and governance. It argues that the difficulties faced by education systems reflect deeper misalignments between their institutional architectures and the cognitive and decision-making capacities required in complex environments. The analysis highlights the persistent fragmentation of knowledge, the dominance of reductionist epistemologies, the inertia of industrial models of knowledge production, and the limitations of competencebased education frameworks. The paper further shows how the rapid diffusion of artificial intelligence functions as a stress test for prevailing educational assumptions, revealing structural constraints rather than introducing fundamentally new challenges. By reframing educational failure as a systemic issue, the paper identifies an open problem space concerning the role of education in supporting human agency and collective capacity to act under complexity.