Prediction of the Spare Parts Range Based on Time and Economic Factors

This work examines the results of research into internal combustion engine malfunction using the example of a vehicle control group of a specific transport company during the warranty and post-warranty periods. Studies have established that the most frequently encountered distribution laws for random variables during vehicle operation are normal, Weibull, log-normal, and exponential, and research has determined the patterns of units’ malfunctions and the internal combustion engine parts. The reliable operation of vehicles is achieved by maintaining a stock of spare parts, the size and range of which play an important part in the ensuing costs. It is important to forecast the need for spare parts to improve the efficiency of vehicle operation. A common drawback of forecasting methods, from the point of view of material resource management is the limited consideration of important factors such as the spare parts’ delivery time from the moment of ordering, the time frame for performing the repair work, and the spare parts’ cost. We determined that 65.7% of spare parts are delivered within one day, and 15.7% are delivered within 2 weeks. Further, it takes up to 3 h for the replacement of 82.45% of the spare parts. To determine the need for spare parts, it is important to consider the actual operational reliability and the listed factors to enable optimizing the repair fund of the motor transport enterprise and increase the efficiency of use of rolling stock.