Beyond Climate Change: The Role of Integrated Soil Fertility Management for Sustaining Future Maize Yield in Sub‐Saharan Africa
Climate change is projected to exacerbate food insecurity in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) by reducing crop yields and soil fertility. Many climate change impact studies in SSA have overlooked long-term effects of soil fertility on crop yield. We evaluated maize yields under different scenarios of soil fertility (using soil organic carbon as a proxy) and climate change (considering changes in temperature, rainfall, and CO<sub>2</sub>) at four sites in SSA. Using an ensemble of 15 calibrated soil-crop models, we found a strong consensus that, without fertilization, soil fertility declines over time, impacting maize yields more strongly than changes in temperature, rainfall, or CO<sub>2</sub>. The model ensemble indicated that when accounting for soil fertility changes, the yield benefits of combined application of organic and mineral inputs increase over time, even under climate change. These findings highlight the importance of considering long-term change in soil fertility when assessing impacts of climate change and integrated nutrient management on crop production in SSA.
Authors
- François Affholder (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3919-4805)
- Congmu Zhang (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1413-9834)
- Anthony Michael Whitbread (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4840-7670)
- Kenneth J. Boote (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1358-5496)
- Marcelo Valadares Galdos (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6080-0726)
- Christian Folberth (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6738-5238)
- Hervé Guibert
- Antoine Versini (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5119-0567)
- Cheryl Porter (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7269-6543)
- Antoine Couëdel (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5786-0939)
- Bahareh Kamali (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8070-0175)
- Régis Chikowo (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3047-359X)
- Léonard Rusinamhodzi (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5576-2040)
- Aram Gorooei (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0644-2032)
- Marc Corbeels (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8084-9287)
- Bruno Bartelle Basso
- Six Johan
- Claas Nendel
- Rémi Cardinael
- Brian A. Grant
- Eric Justes
- Fasil Mequanint
- Bidisha Chakrabarti
- Myriam Adam
- Moritz Laub
- Murilo Vianna
- Heidi Webber
- Ward N. Smith
- Amit Srivastava
- Gatien N. Falconnier
- Mathias Christina
- Gerrit Hoogenboom
- Babacar Faye
- Tobias Weber
- Dominique Ripoche
- Juraj Balkovic
- Shikha Sharma
- Folorunso M. Akinseye
- Sebastian Gayler
- Thomas Gaiser
- Arti Bhatia
- Upendra Singh
- Alex C. Ruane
Institutions
- University of Kassel (DE)
- University of Hohenheim (DE)
- Indian Agricultural Statistics Research Institute (IN)
- Goddard Institute for Space Studies (US)
- International Fertilizer Development Center (US)
- Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (FR)
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (AT)
- Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (CA)
- University of Bonn (DE)
- University of Zimbabwe (ZW)
- Pedagogical University (MZ)
- Eduardo Mondlane University (MZ)
- Forschungszentrum Jülich (DE)
- University of Potsdam (DE)
- Université de Montpellier (FR)
- AgroParisTech (FR)
- University of Reunion Island (RE)
- Rothamsted Research (GB)
- University of Florida (US)
- ETH Zurich (CH)
- Centre d'Etude Regional pour l'Amelioration de l'Adaptation a la Secheresse (SN)
- Institut National de Recherche pour l'Agriculture, l'Alimentation et l'Environnement (FR)
- Ecologie fonctionnelle & biogéochimie des sols & des agro-systèmes (FR)
- Université du Sine Saloum El-Hâdj Ibrahima NIASS (SN)
- Gouvernance, Risque, Environnement, Développement (FR)
- International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (KE)
- Czech Academy of Sciences, Global Change Research Institute (CZ)
- Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (DE)
- Amélioration Génétique et Adaptation des Plantes méditerranéennes et tropicales (FR)
- International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (ET)
- Institut Agro Montpelier (FR)
- Services déconcentrés d'appui à la recherche Occitanie-Montpellier (FR)
- International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (KE)
- University of Battambang (KH)
- Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (FR)
- Ottawa Research and Development Centre
- Indian Agricultural Research Institute (IN)
- Université de Picardie Jules Verne (FR)
- Brandenburg University of Technology Cottbus-Senftenberg (DE)
- International Livestock Research Institute (KE)
- Université de Thiès (SN)
- Michigan State University (US)
- University of Puerto Rico at Carolina (PR)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Global Change Biology
- Published
- 2026-02-01
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70720
- Primary Topic
- Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 0.00