Depopulation processes in Spain: Implementation of gravitational models to territorial cohesion

Although there is no general theory that explains depopulation processes, this research has enabled the development of an innovative and adapted gravitational model at the interprovincial level in Spanish provinces experiencing depopulation. These model and results could be applied to other territories and countries. As a key contribution of the article is the explicit incorporation of greater detail of economic complexity than GDP, through certain indicators as Economic Complexity Index, into the specification of gravitational models aimed at explaining migratory flows. Instead of the traditional gravitational model which considers the relationship between variables, such as distance, and the GDP, it has been introduced new variables, including sectoral diversification, the cost of time, measured with isochrones, and the category of areas at high risk of depopulation. The results have shown that there are different migration patterns depending on the value of the isochrones between the provinces at risk of depopulation and the attraction center destination. Similarly, the findings demonstrate the need for specific policies for provinces at high risk of depopulation.