Forecast trends in increasing the sustainability of production potential of the Russia agrifood complex

The current geopolitical situation and sanctions policy have become a serious challenge to the sustainable development of the Russian agri-food complex. The purpose of the study is to substantiate the forecast trends in the sustainable development of the production potential of the Russian agri-food complex. Conceptual aspects of forecasting scientific and technological development have been developed in the context of the need to ensure food security and sustainable socio-economic development of the agri-food complex. The methods for assessing and forecasting the scientific and technological development of the agri-food complex of foreign countries are generalized. An empirical assessment of current trends in innovative development of agriculture in the conditions of neo-industrialization was carried out. The calculations show that if current trends continue, gross value added in 2024 will reach 6407.2 billion rubles, and in 2030 – 7462.5 billion rubles; the capital-labor ratio will increase by 15-16% in the next 2-3 years, and by 2030 – by 55.7%; the number of high-performance jobs will increase by 2030 to 1,160 thousand. These results justify the need to improve methods and tools of state support in the agricultural sector of the economy: stimulation of research, scientific, technical and innovation activities; consistency of economic interests of participants in the innovation process; implementation of strategic programs for scientific and technological development; increasing the investment attractiveness of regions by increasing the added value of high-tech products. The practical significance of the results of the study lies in the development of measures to improve innovation and science and technology policies in order to achieve positive effects from neo-industrialization in the agricultural sector during the transition to Industry 4.0.