Characteristics of price fluctuations and trend prediction for China's major imported log species

China's log import volume and value varied significantly across different species during 2015–2023. In order to cope with future price fluctuations, it is necessary to analyze the characteristics and trends of import prices by log species. This paper used empirical mode decomposition to decompose the monthly import prices of six major log species with the largest import volume and value during 2015–2023, a iming to determine the fluctuation characteristics. A seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model was then established to predict the future import prices of major log species. Results showed that: (1) the price fluctuations of imported Pinus radiata logs were dominated by short to medium-term variations, other tropical timber logs, Abies and Picea logs mainly fluctuated in the medium to long-term, and Quercus spp ., unlisted non-coniferous logs, Pinus koraiensis and Pinus sylvestris log price fluctuations were mainly long-term. (2) Over the next three years, the import prices of Pinus radiata logs will show a trend of first increasing and then decreasing, Pinus koraiensis and Pinus sylvestris will remain relatively stable, and other tropical timber logs, Abies and Picea logs, Quercus spp . logs, and unlisted non-coniferous logs will show a fluctuating upward trend. Therefore, it is suggested that China should actively grasp the policy opportunities such as the Belt and Road initiative and Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership to diversify log import channels, and meanwhile increase domestic supply and strive to improve the utilization rate of log resources, in order to promote the healthy development of its forest products industry.