From Conventional to Modernised ERTMS Level 2: Steps Towards Rail Interoperability and Automation in Belgium

In this scientific article, a quantitative assessment is carried out of the influence of the ERTMS modernisation factor on the practical efficiency of operation and resilience of the Belgian railway lines 50A/51A with the application of methodological triangulation in the MATLAB R2025a Update 1 (25.1.0.2973910) software environment (discrete-event modelling, Petri nets, Markov reliability modelling, and correlation analysis). The modelling reveals that the scenario with an expanded level of automation increases the capacity from 18.3 to 26.0 trains over 2 h (+42.1%) and reduces the average waiting time from 1.53 min (baseline level) to 0.21 min—virtually the theoretical lower bound of zero under favourable conditions. The results of the block-occupancy analysis by means of Petri nets show that a more dynamic distribution of blocks provides higher capacity, and Markov chains reflect the reduction of the impact of control centre unavailability in developing communications and virtualisations. Spearman correlation analysis additionally shows coordinated improvement of the metrics of safety, digital protection, resilience, and performance. Relying on the modelling results, a phased roadmap is proposed, combining technical improvements (development of communication systems, readiness for automation, comparable management of rolling stock movement) with compliance with regulatory requirements and the goals of sustainable development, related to SDGs 9, 11, and 13.